Agenda Setting in Intergovernmental Expert Panels Using Frontier Technology Foresight: Policy Evaluation
Keywords:
Technology Foresight, Agenda Setting, Policy Evaluation, Intergovernmental Panels, Multidisciplinary ResearchAbstract
This paper investigates the mechanisms through which frontier technology foresight translates into formal policy agenda setting within global governance frameworks, specifically focusing on the mediating role of intergovernmental expert panels. As emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, synthetic biology, and quantum computing accelerate, traditional regulatory mechanisms struggle to maintain pace, creating a governance vacuum. Intergovernmental expert panels serve as crucial epistemic brokers, utilizing structured technology foresight to inform state actors. However, the path from foresight to concrete policy action remains highly non-linear and poorly understood. By constructing a comprehensive analytical model that integrates policy evaluation methodologies with agenda-setting theory, this study explores how prospective technology assessments are evaluated, institutionalized, and translated into binding or non-binding global governance agendas. Through a comparative analysis of historical and contemporary expert panels, we demonstrate that the predictive accuracy of agenda-setting outcomes is highly dependent on three key dimensions: epistemic consensus, institutional design, and political alignment. This research contributes to the fields of science and technology studies, international relations, and public policy by providing a predictive framework that enhances our understanding of how scientific consensus transforms into global regulatory initiatives.References
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